COURSE OVERVIEW:

The transition from basic risk identification to sophisticated management of uncertainty requires a specialized toolkit that combines qualitative insight with quantitative rigor. This course provides a high-level exploration of advanced project tools and techniques designed to navigate the volatility of complex, large-scale industrial projects. It focuses on the strategic deployment of analytical software and cognitive frameworks to transform raw data into actionable intelligence for decision-makers.

The scope of this training encompasses the technical application of "Monte Carlo Simulations," "Decision Tree Analysis," and "Sensitivity Modeling" to address cost and schedule variables. Participants will learn how to utilize "Bayesian Inference" for probability updates, implement "Bow-Tie" diagrams for major hazard control, and manage "Black Swan" events through resilient planning. The course provides practical mastery of industry-leading risk software and the integration of these tools into the overall project control system.

Coverage includes the analysis of "Expert Judgment" bias reduction, the implementation of "Risk-Based Decision Support" systems, and the execution of "Probabilistic Branching" in project schedules. Attendees will explore the utilization of "Influence Diagrams" and learn how to communicate complex uncertainty to executive stakeholders using "Tornado" and "Spider" diagrams. By mastering these advanced tools and techniques, professionals will be able to provide a more realistic forecast of project outcomes and protect the organization from unforeseen financial and operational shocks.

COURSE OBJECTIVES:

After completion of this course, the participants will be able to:

• Deploy advanced "Quantitative Risk Analysis" (QRA) tools.
• Execute "Monte Carlo Simulations" for integrated cost and schedule.
• Design "Decision Trees" to evaluate complex strategic pathways.
• Utilize "Sensitivity Analysis" to identify critical project drivers.
• Apply "Bayesian" logic to update risk probabilities with new data.
• Implement "Bow-Tie" modeling for high-impact hazard management.
• Construct "Influence Diagrams" to map project dependencies.
• Utilize "Tornado Diagrams" for visual risk prioritization.
• Perform "Probabilistic Branching" within project schedules.
• Manage "Optimism Bias" through Reference Class Forecasting.
• Utilize "Spider Diagrams" to compare risk profiles of different options.
• Communicate "Probability of Success" (P-values) to senior management.

TARGET AUDIENCE:

This course is intended for Risk Engineers, Senior Planners, Project Directors, Financial Analysts, and Technical Leads.

TRAINING COURSE METHODOLOGY:

A highly interactive combination of lectures, discussion sessions, and case studies will be employed to maximize the transfer of information, knowledge, and experience. The course will be intensive, practical, and highly interactive. The sessions will start by raising the most relevant questions and motivating everybody to find the right answers. The attendants will also be encouraged to raise more of their questions and to share in developing the right answers using their analysis and experience. There will also be some indoor experiential activities to enhance the learning experience. Course material will be provided in PowerPoint, with necessary animations, learning videos, and general discussions.

The course participants shall be evaluated before, during, and at the end of the course.

COURSE CERTIFICATE:

National Consultant Centre for Training LLC (NCC) will issue an Attendance Certificate to all participants completing a minimum of 80% of the total attendance time requirement.