COURSE OVERVIEW:

The exploration and production sector of the energy industry is inherently defined by high capital intensity and significant geological ambiguity. This course explores the systematic process of identifying, quantifying, and managing the various risks that impact petroleum projects from initial discovery to final abandonment. By integrating statistical methods with geological and engineering data, participants will learn how to transform raw uncertainty into actionable intelligence that supports long-term corporate strategy and asset value maximization.

Decision analysis in the petroleum context involves the application of rigorous logical frameworks to choose between complex alternatives under conditions of imperfect information. This scope covers the utilization of decision trees, Monte Carlo simulations, and sensitivity analyses to evaluate the economic viability of drilling prospects and infrastructure investments. Understanding the interplay between technical variables and market volatility is essential for production engineers and managers who must justify multi-million dollar expenditures to stakeholders and regulatory bodies.

The coverage of this course extends to the practical implementation of uncertainty management protocols within integrated asset teams. It addresses the mitigation of "dry hole" risks, the management of reservoir performance variability, and the optimization of development sequences in volatile price environments. By focusing on both the qualitative and quantitative aspects of risk, the program ensures that participants can distinguish between controllable operational hazards and inherent subsurface uncertainties, leading to more resilient and profitable field development plans.

COURSE OBJECTIVES:

After completion of this course, the participants will be able to:

• Identify the primary categories of technical and commercial risks in upstream projects.
• Apply probability distributions to model subsurface and engineering uncertainties.
• Construct and interpret complex decision trees for sequential investment choices.
• Calculate the Expected Monetary Value and the Value of Information for new data.
• Perform Monte Carlo simulations to forecast production profiles and project costs.
• Evaluate the impact of oil price volatility on project Net Present Value.
• Execute sensitivity analyses using Tornado diagrams and Spider plots.
• Formulate risk mitigation strategies for high-pressure and high-temperature environments.
• Determine the optimal timing for field expansion and secondary recovery investments.
• Integrate portfolio management principles to balance high-risk and low-risk assets.
• Communicate uncertainty findings effectively to executive leadership and investors.
• Utilize Bayesian statistics to update project success probabilities after new trials.
• Assess the environmental and regulatory risks associated with petroleum operations.

TARGET AUDIENCE:

Asset Managers, Reservoir Engineers, Production Engineers, Project Economists, and Geoscientists involved in field development planning and capital allocation decisions.

TRAINING COURSE METHODOLOGY:

A highly interactive combination of lectures, discussion sessions, and case studies will be employed to maximise the transfer of information, knowledge, and experience. The course will be intensive, practical, and highly interactive. The sessions will start by raising the most relevant questions and motivating everybody to find the right answers. The attendants will also be encouraged to raise more of their questions and to share in developing the right answers using their analysis and experience. There will also be some indoor experiential activities to enhance the learning experience. Course material will be provided in PowerPoint, with necessary animations, learning videos, and general discussions.

 The course participants shall be evaluated before, during, and at the end of the course.

COURSE CERTIFICATE:

National Consultant Centre for Training LLC (NCC) will issue an Attendance Certificate to all participants completing a minimum of 80% of the total attendance time requirement.