COURSE OVERVIEW:

Probabilistic Volumetrics and Uncertainty in Resource Estimation is a vital course for geoscientists and engineers tasked with quantifying the commercial potential of oil and gas assets. In the subsurface, every parameter—from area and thickness to porosity and saturation—is subject to measurement error and geological variability. This course teaches participants how to move away from single-point "best estimates" and instead utilize statistical distributions to express the range of possible outcomes.

The coverage includes the fundamental principles of probability theory and the application of Monte Carlo simulation to generate P90, P50, and P10 resource estimates. Attendees will learn how to select appropriate distribution types (e.g., Lognormal, Beta, Triangle) for different geological variables and how to handle correlations between parameters to avoid overestimating or underestimating the total volume. The scope addresses both exploration-stage "prospect" volumetrics and development-stage "reservoir" resource categorization.

Furthermore, the course addresses the reporting standards required by international regulatory bodies, such as the PRMS (Petroleum Resources Management System). Participants will explore how to integrate geological risk into the volumetric workflow and how to communicate uncertainty effectively to decision-makers. By the end of the course, participants will be able to perform rigorous volumetric calculations that reflect the true technical and commercial risks associated with a subsurface project.

COURSE OBJECTIVES:

After completion of this course, the participants will be able to:

• Define the difference between Deterministic and Probabilistic Volumetrics.
• Understand the statistical concepts of Mean, Median, Mode, and Standard Deviation.
• Utilize Monte Carlo simulation for resource quantification.
• Select appropriate Probability Density Functions (PDF) for input parameters.
• Identify the key variables in the Oil and Gas-in-Place equations.
• Account for "Dependency" and "Correlation" between volumetric variables.
• Generate and interpret Cumulative Frequency Curves (P90, P50, P10).
• Apply the PRMS (Petroleum Resources Management System) classification.
• Integrate Geological Chance of Success (Pg) with volumetric outcomes.
• Distinguish between Resources and Reserves.
• Perform "Sensitivity Analysis" (Tornado Plots) to identify key drivers of risk.
• Evaluate the impact of fluid properties (Bo, Bg) on surface volumes.
• Quantify the uncertainty in Area-Depth relationships and Net-to-Gross.
• Communicate resource uncertainty to non-technical stakeholders and investors.

TARGET AUDIENCE:

Exploration Geologists, Reservoir Engineers, Asset Managers, and Commercial Analysts involved in asset valuation and resource reporting.

TRAINING COURSE METHODOLOGY:

A highly interactive combination of lectures, discussion sessions, and case studies will be employed to maximise the transfer of information, knowledge, and experience. The course will be intensive, practical, and highly interactive. The sessions will start by raising the most relevant questions and motivating everybody to find the right answers. The attendants will also be encouraged to raise more of their questions and to share in developing the right answers using their analysis and experience. There will also be some indoor experiential activities to enhance the learning experience. Course material will be provided in PowerPoint, with necessary animations, learning videos, and general discussions.

The course participants shall be evaluated before, during, and at the end of the course.

COURSE CERTIFICATE:

National Consultant Centre for Training LLC (NCC) will issue an Attendance Certificate to all participants completing a minimum of 80% of the total attendance time requirement.