COURSE OVERVIEW:

Geological Risk Assessment is the analytical process of quantifying the probability that a specific exploration prospect contains a minimum volume of movable hydrocarbons. This course focuses on the rigorous evaluation of the four essential petroleum system elements: source, reservoir, seal, and trap. Participants will learn how to move from qualitative descriptions to a standardized, quantitative probability framework. The scope covers the distinction between "Risk" (the probability of failure) and "Uncertainty" (the range of possible success outcomes), ensuring that explorationists can communicate technical confidence to financial decision-makers.

The coverage includes a deep dive into the "Probability of Geological Success" (Pg) and how it is calculated through independent and dependent risk factors. Attendees will explore methodologies for assessing source rock maturity and migration timing, reservoir presence and quality, and the effectiveness of top and lateral seals. The curriculum emphasizes the use of Common Risk Segment (CRS) mapping to visualize regional risk trends and constrain prospect-level assessments. By applying these techniques, participants will be able to identify "deal-breakers" early in the maturation process, avoiding the high cost of drilling wells on fundamentally flawed concepts.

In addition to the geological elements, the course addresses the psychological aspects of risk assessment, specifically cognitive biases such as overconfidence and anchoring. Participants will learn how to implement "Peer Review" and "Challenge Sessions" to ensure objectivity and consistency across a company’s portfolio. The training also bridges the gap between risk and volumetrics, teaching how to integrate risk factors into Monte Carlo simulations. This holistic approach ensures that the resulting exploration portfolio is balanced, transparent, and aligned with the organization's risk tolerance and strategic goals.

COURSE OBJECTIVES:

After completion of this course, the participants will be able to:

• Define the mathematical difference between risk and uncertainty.
• Calculate the Probability of Geological Success (Pg) for a prospect.
• Evaluate source rock presence, quality, and thermal maturity risks.
• Assess the likelihood of hydrocarbon charge and migration timing.
• Quantify the risk of reservoir presence and facies distribution.
• Analyze seal integrity and the risk of trap breach over time.
• Distinguish between independent and dependent risk components.
• Utilize Play Fairway Mapping to constrain prospect-level risks.
• Identify and mitigate cognitive biases in the risk assessment process.
• Apply standard industry risk matrices for consistent portfolio ranking.
• Integrate geological risk into probabilistic volumetric assessments.
• Conduct post-well audits to calibrate future risk parameters.
• Evaluate the risk impact of faulting on trap and seal effectiveness.
• Communicate complex risk profiles to non-technical stakeholders.

TARGET AUDIENCE:

Exploration Geologists, Geophysicists, Basin Analysts, and Portfolio Managers responsible for investment decisions and prospect ranking.

TRAINING COURSE METHODOLOGY:

A highly interactive combination of lectures, discussion sessions, and case studies will be employed to maximise the transfer of information, knowledge, and experience. The course will be intensive, practical, and highly interactive. The sessions will start by raising the most relevant questions and motivating everybody to find the right answers. The attendants will also be encouraged to raise more of their questions and to share in developing the right answers using their analysis and experience. There will also be some indoor experiential activities to enhance the learning experience. Course material will be provided in PowerPoint, with necessary animations, learning videos, and general discussions.

The course participants shall be evaluated before, during, and at the end of the course.

COURSE CERTIFICATE:

National Consultant Centre for Training LLC (NCC) will issue an Attendance Certificate to all participants completing a minimum of 80% of the total attendance time requirement.