Exploration Prospect Maturation and Chance of Success Evaluation
| 19 – 23 Jan. 2026, Abu Dhabi | 09 – 13 Nov. 2026, Abu Dhabi |
COURSE OVERVIEW:
The process of exploration prospect maturation is the cornerstone of the upstream oil and gas business, transforming raw geological ideas into drillable targets. This course provides a comprehensive framework for navigating the journey from lead identification to final prospect definition. It emphasizes the systematic reduction of uncertainty through the integration of geological, geophysical, and geochemical data to build a robust technical case for investment. Participants will explore how to identify the critical elements of the petroleum system—source, reservoir, seal, and trap and how these components must align in space and time to create a viable accumulation.
The scope of this training extends beyond simple identification to the rigorous evaluation of the Probability of Geological Success (Pg). Understanding the "Chance of Success" involves a deep dive into risk versus uncertainty, where participants learn to quantify the likelihood of each petroleum system element being present and effective. The course covers the application of standard industry risk matrices and the use of play-based exploration techniques to ensure that prospects are evaluated consistently within their regional context. By mastering these evaluation tools, explorationists can provide management with the objective data needed to rank opportunities and optimize exploration portfolios.
Finally, the course addresses the maturation workflow, including the preparation of the Final Prospect Document and the presentation to Peer Review committees. It covers the estimation of resource volumes, the assessment of trap integrity, and the timing of hydrocarbon migration relative to trap formation. Through practical exercises and real-world examples, the coverage ensures that attendees understand the importance of intellectual honesty and the "dry hole analysis" mindset. This holistic approach ensures that every prospect is scrutinized under a standardized lens to maximize the commercial value of the drilling program.
COURSE OBJECTIVES:
After completion of this course, the participants will be able to:
- Define the stages of the exploration life cycle from regional play to prospect.
- Distinguish between geological risk and volumetric uncertainty.
- Evaluate the effectiveness of source rock presence and maturity.
- Assess reservoir presence and quality based on depositional models.
- Quantify the probability of seal integrity and top-seal capacity.
- Analyze the timing of hydrocarbon charge relative to trap formation.
- Utilize play fairway mapping to constrain prospect-level risks.
- Calculate the Probability of Geological Success (Pg) using standard matrices.
- Develop a consistent methodology for ranking exploration opportunities.
- Identify the common pitfalls and biases in prospect maturation.
- Prepare comprehensive prospect summary sheets for management approval.
- Conduct post-well audits to refine risk assessment for future wells.
- Integrate seismic and well data to reduce structural and stratigraphic risk.
- Apply probabilistic methods to resource estimation and success evaluation.
TARGET AUDIENCE:
Exploration Geologists, Geophysicists, Basin Modelers, and Asset Managers responsible for prospect generation and portfolio optimization.
TRAINING COURSE METHODOLOGY:
A highly interactive combination of lectures, discussion sessions, and case studies will be employed to maximise the transfer of information, knowledge, and experience. The course will be intensive, practical, and highly interactive. The sessions will start by raising the most relevant questions and motivating everybody to find the right answers. The attendants will also be encouraged to raise more of their questions and to share in developing the right answers using their analysis and experience. There will also be some indoor experiential activities to enhance the learning experience. Course material will be provided in PowerPoint, with necessary animations, learning videos, and general discussions.
The course participants shall be evaluated before, during, and at the end of the course.
COURSE CERTIFICATE:
National Consultant Centre for Training LLC (NCC) will issue an Attendance Certificate to all participants completing a minimum of 80% of the total attendance time requirement.

