COURSE OVERVIEW:

The meaning of energy technology forecasting refers to the structured methodology of predicting the future performance, cost, and adoption rates of emerging energy systems through the use of quantitative models and qualitative expert elicitation. This course focuses on the analytical frameworks required to distinguish between transient market hype and genuine technological breakthroughs in areas such as long-duration storage, nuclear fusion, and advanced geothermal systems. By mastering these forecasting techniques, professionals can navigate the uncertainties of the global energy transition with greater precision and data-driven confidence.

The scope of this training encompasses the evaluation of technology readiness levels (TRL) and the application of Wright’s Law and Swanson’s Law to project future cost reductions in manufacturing. It examines the interplay between policy mandates, resource availability, and thermodynamic limits that dictate the pace of technological evolution. The course provides a deep dive into the use of Delphi methods, scenario planning, and patent analysis to identify early signals of disruption in the power generation, transportation, and industrial sectors.

Coverage includes the assessment of technology maturity through the use of S-curves and the identification of "tipping points" where new technologies achieve unsubsidized grid parity. The course addresses the critical challenges of forecasting during periods of extreme market volatility and the impact of geopolitical supply chain constraints on technology deployment. Participants will gain practical expertise in building technology roadmaps that align corporate capital expenditure with the anticipated arrival of next-generation energy solutions.

COURSE OBJECTIVES:

After completion of this course, the participants will be able to:

1. Differentiate between exploratory and normative technology forecasting methods.
2. Apply Technology Readiness Level (TRL) frameworks to categorize energy innovations.
3. Utilize experience curves and learning rates to predict future capital costs of renewables.
4. Conduct patent landscape analysis to identify emerging leaders in energy intellectual property.
5. Develop multi-variable scenarios for technology adoption in diverse regulatory environments.
6. Evaluate the thermodynamic and material limits of emerging battery and solar chemistries.
7. Use the Delphi method to synthesize expert opinions on high-uncertainty energy trends.
8. Identify "Black Swan" events that could disrupt established energy technology roadmaps.
9. Perform a gap analysis between current technology performance and future market requirements.
10. Analyze the impact of "Spillover Effects" from digital technology into energy systems.
11. Build a technology assessment matrix for comparing competing decarbonization pathways.
12. Communicate complex technology forecasts to non-technical executive stakeholders.

TARGET AUDIENCE:

This course is designed for Energy Policy Analysts, Strategic Planners, Investment Officers, Technology Officers, Research and Development Managers, and Sustainability Consultants within the energy and utility sectors.

TRAINING COURSE METHODOLOGY:

A highly interactive combination of lectures, discussion sessions, and case studies will be employed to maximize the transfer of information, knowledge, and experience. The course will be intensive, practical, and highly interactive. The sessions will start by raising the most relevant questions and motivating everybody to find the right answers. The attendants will also be encouraged to raise more of their questions and to share in developing the right answers using their analysis and experience. There will also be some indoor experiential activities to enhance the learning experience. Course material will be provided in PowerPoint, with necessary animations, learning videos, and general discussions.

The course participants shall be evaluated before, during, and at the end of the course.

COURSE CERTIFICATE:

National Consultant Centre for Training LLC (NCC) will issue an Attendance Certificate to all participants completing a minimum of 80% of the total attendance time requirement.